As statistically indicated, the Democratic Party WILL lose seats in the upcoming midterms. No one questions this - not now and not in any midterm election. Cases where the majority gained seats in a midterm are aberrant. But the picture improved for the Democratic Party given the results of the primaries, primarily because the Right elected a handful of candidates that, like them or not, have thrown a number of races that were a slam dunk for Republicans back into the "leaning Democratic" category.
There are several other variations on this theme, but the bottom line is that in yesterday's Senate Rankings at fivethrityeight.com, the meta-polling picture improved for the Democratic Party, who now is more likely than not to hold onto 55 seats. The Republican Party's chances to take the Senate remains at about 6%. And a lot depends on which party Charlie Crist caucuses with should he win the FL seat (which looks increasingly likely).
Here's the goods from the dean of polling data: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/senate-forecast-after-primaries-picture.html
